Deal Intelligence
MethodologyRefreshed May 20

How deals are scored

The rubric, weights, and calibration the engine runs on every page load

Five-category weighted scoring rubric for evaluating historic / multi-credit-stack real estate deals against Monarch Private Capital's revealed investment preferences. Score range 0-100 (with up to +6 bonus). Threshold ≥70 = term-sheet ready, 55-69 = watchlist, <55 = deprioritize.

QRE (Qualified Rehabilitation Expenditures): the IRS-recognized eligible cost basis for HTC credits. Throughout this page, "rehab spend" and "QRE" refer to the same number.

Term-sheet ready 70Watchlist 55-69Deprioritize < 55

Categories

  1. 1. Tax credit stack density · weight 30%

    How many qualifying credits can stack on this single deal. Mirrors Monarch's revealed preference for multi-credit projects.

    Components

    • Federal HTC (20%)10 pts
    • State HTC8 pts
    • Niche state credit (SC Mill / Abandoned, IL River Edge, etc.)5 pts
    • LIHTC layered (9% or 4%)5 pts
    • Rooftop ITC / NMTC / other2 pts

    Maximum: 30 points

  2. 2. Historic / regulatory readiness · weight 20%

    How far along the building is in the certification process. Closer to closing = higher score.

    Components

    • National Register listed or contributing8 pts
    • Local landmark designated0 pts

      Often serves as substitute for NR; do not double count with nr_listed_or_contributing

    • NPS HTC Part 1 approved3 pts
    • NPS HTC Part 2 approved5 pts
    • State SHPO HTC allocation / reservation4 pts

    Maximum: 20 points

  3. 3. State / city policy environment · weight 15%

    Is the building in a state where Monarch actively underwrites, with a generous state credit program? Plus geographic bonuses.

    State tiers

    • ATier15 pts

      SC · OH · NE · WI · IN · RI · MA · MO · IL · NY · CA · LA · MD

    • BTier10 pts

      GA · NC · KS · NH · VA · TN · PA · MI · TX

    • CTier3 pts

      other

    Bonuses

    • Chicago LaSalle Reimagined site3 pts
    • Illinois RERZ certified city (River Edge zone)3 pts

    Maximum: 18 points

  4. 4. Developer relationship · weight 15%

    Is the sponsor a known Monarch repeat partner? Monarch's pipeline is heavily relationship-driven.

    Tiers

    • AMonarch repeat partner15 pts

      Clarity Development, TWG Development, Zimmerman Properties, CRP Affordable Housing & Community Development, KCG Companies, Rivington Company, GoVenture Capital Group, Riverstone Platform Partners, Foutch Brothers, Baldovin Development, Prime Group, Riverside Investment & Development, DL3 Realty, Schaumber Development, Southport Development, MirKa Investments, MRE Capital, Chinburg Properties, Peabody Properties, Hunt Capital Partners

    • BEstablished HTC/LIHTC developer with 3+ closed deals nationally10 pts
    • CFirst-time or unknown developer5 pts

    Maximum: 15 points

  5. 5. Deal size / feasibility · weight 20%

    Total development cost in Monarch's modal band, with a quantifiable financing gap that tax equity fills.

    Size bands

    • modalTDC $20M to $75M12 pts
    • edge$15M to $20M or $75M to $150M8 pts
    • outlierTDC outside edge band4 pts

    Bonuses

    • HTC equity gap explicitly identified in public financing docs / pro forma5 pts
    • Affordable set-aside ≥ 30% of units3 pts

    Maximum: 20 points

Calibration examples

Expected ranges anchor the model to real outcomes. Actual scores are computed live by the scoring engine on every page load. Drift between expected and actual is a signal that the engine or the inputs need attention.

DealExpectedActualTierStatus
135 S. LaSalle (Field Building)85 to 9286
A
In range
1904 Farnam (Omaha)82 to 8888
A
In range
Stedman & Fuller (Providence)76 to 8277
A
In range
30 N. LaSalle (calibration: non-historic)38 to 4844
C
In range

Source: rubric.json (versioned with the engine in src/lib/scoring.ts) · Last refreshed 2026-05-19